The ABS released September building approvals on 2 November. Approvals rose 5.1 per cent to 17,948 dwellings in seasonally adjusted terms, which looks like good news for housing supply. I read it next to the construction and completion figures, because an approval only tells you that a home is allowed to be built.
Put together, the figures show a lot of homes moving through the system at once and fewer coming out the other end than the national target needs.
What September showed
The headline rise came from apartments and townhouses. Private sector dwellings other than houses rose 16.6 per cent to 6,579, after falling 21.7 per cent in August. In original terms apartment approvals rose 25.6 per cent to 4,129, close to their twelve month average of 4,106. Most of the lift was in New South Wales, where 1,995 apartments were approved, up from 901 in August.
Houses went the other way. Private house approvals fell 5.3 per cent to 10,432, with falls in every state. That was the largest monthly drop since August 2025, although it was the ninth month in a row above 10,000, and house approvals are still 9.6 per cent higher than a year ago.
Queensland's total approvals rose 28.0 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms, to 4,382. Monthly numbers for a single state move around a lot. In trend terms, Queensland was slightly lower over the month.
The pipeline is the biggest on record
The ABS Building Activity figures for the June quarter put 248,733 dwellings under construction. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council had already called the March quarter figure of about 244,000 the highest since records began in 1984, so the number has gone up again since then.
Most of that work is apartments and townhouses: 152,264 of the homes under construction, against 95,447 houses. These projects take longer to build, and they rely more on pre-sales and staged funding, so they are slower to turn into finished homes.
Completions are lifting. The ABS counted 47,168 dwellings completed in the June quarter, up 15.9 per cent on a year earlier. Commencements rose 7.0 per cent in the quarter to 52,201.
The gap to the target
The National Housing Accord aims for 1.2 million new homes over five years from 1 July 2024. That averages 60,000 homes a quarter. Even after the June quarter lift, completions are running at about 47,000, well short of that pace.
The council's August report counted 308,000 homes completed in the first seven quarters of the Accord, around a quarter of the target. Approvals in the June quarter were 26 per cent higher than just before the Accord started, and commencements were up 15 per cent. It now expects the target to be reached in the December quarter of 2030, around 18 months after the Accord period ends. Its estimate for Queensland is the March quarter of 2031.
Why rates matter here
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.85 per cent on 3 November. Its forecasts have dwelling investment falling 2.8 per cent over 2027 and 3.5 per cent in the year to June 2028. In August the council said it expected softer sentiment and higher interest rates to lead to some housing construction being deferred, and that house construction costs were 51 per cent higher than before the pandemic.
A full pipeline does not guarantee completions. Projects that started under cheaper funding and lower costs now have to finish under tighter conditions. Several state governments have brought in pre-sale finance guarantees for apartments, which shows how much the financing step matters for medium and high density projects.
How I read it
For anyone working on a development, the gap between approval and completion is where most of the risk sits. It shows up in time, cost, pre-sales and funding, and the figures suggest that gap has not closed.
I would treat the September approvals figure as one month in a volatile series. What I watch more closely is whether completions keep rising while commencements hold up, because that would mean the pipeline is actually emptying into finished homes. If commencements start to fall while the under construction number stays high, the delay is getting longer.
The other point is the mix. The national pipeline is now weighted towards apartments and townhouses, and that is the part of the market most exposed to slower pre-sales and higher holding costs.
What I am watching
The ABS releases September quarter lending indicators on 11 November and the next Building Activity figures, for the September quarter, on 13 January 2027. I will be looking at whether finance for new construction holds up and whether completions keep rising.
None of this is a recommendation to borrow, lend, invest or sell. Everyone's position is different.
Sources
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Approvals, Australia, September 2026 (2 Nov 2026)
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Total dwelling approvals rise 5.1% in September (2 Nov 2026)
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Activity, Australia, June 2026 (7 Oct 2026)
National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Quarterly Report, August 2026
The Treasury, Delivering the National Housing Accord
Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy November 2026, Outlook
Personal views, not financial advice.
Key questions
How many dwellings were approved in Australia in September 2026?
The ABS reported on 2 November 2026 that 17,948 dwellings were approved in September in seasonally adjusted terms, up 5.1 per cent on August and 0.8 per cent lower than a year earlier. Private sector house approvals fell 5.3 per cent to 10,432, while private sector dwellings excluding houses, which include townhouses and apartments, rose 16.6 per cent to 6,579.
How many homes are under construction in Australia?
The ABS Building Activity release for the June quarter 2026 showed 248,733 dwellings under construction in original terms, of which 95,447 were new houses and 152,264 were other residential dwellings such as apartments and townhouses. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council said the March quarter figure of 244,000 was already the highest since records began in 1984.
How many homes are being completed each quarter?
The ABS reported 47,168 dwellings completed in the June quarter 2026 in seasonally adjusted terms, up 5.8 per cent on the March quarter and 15.9 per cent on a year earlier. The National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million homes over five years from 1 July 2024 works out to an average of 60,000 homes a quarter.
When is the 1.2 million homes target expected to be reached?
In its August 2026 Quarterly Report, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council estimated the target will be reached in the December quarter of 2030, about 18 months after the five year Accord period ends in mid 2029 and one quarter later than it expected in April. For Queensland it estimated the March quarter of 2031, delayed from the September quarter of 2030.
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